According to the latest Arval Mobility Observatory research, fleet operator expectations about the number of electric vans they will operate in the future are falling.
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The 2025 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer reveals that, when asked to predict the percentage of battery electric vans in their fleet by 2028, the response was 14%. This compares to 15% in 2024 and 18% in 2023 when the same question was asked.
Similar results were observed for plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vans, with 14% this year, compared to 15% in 2024 and 11% in 2023. Conversely, the expectation for petrol and diesel vans was 71% now, against 64% in 2024 and 62% in 2023.
John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “This question is one of the most interesting in the Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, looking at how van fleets expect the fuel mix of their fleets to change within the next three years. Unavoidably, the key finding here is a limited expectation that adoption of battery, PHEV and hydrogen vans will noticeably rise. In fact, there is a general feeling that the percentage of traditional diesel and petrol vehicles will increase instead.”
Fleets were encountering issues with electric van use, he explained, especially when it came to limitations around range, payload and charging. These were creating operational compromises that some operators were finding very difficult to resolve.
“These are almost certainly the reasons why many of our respondents are unconvinced about the potential for adoption. Indeed, much of the work being carried out by the Arval UK consultancy team is aimed at helping customers find solutions to these issues. However, it remains our belief that these predictions are overly pessimistic and that use of both electric and PHEV vans will rise substantially by the end of the decade.”
John added that it was notable that similar results were seen in the 2025 Barometer for both UK fleets of different sizes and European and global fleets. “This suggests the same kinds of issues with the transition to zero-emissions vans are arising everywhere. Hopefully, we can all work together to discover effective solutions.”
The latest SMMT market report found that new electric LCV registrations grew by 41.1% year-on-year to 4,262 units in September 2025, the most ever recorded in a single month, achieving a market share of 8.9%. Year-to-date BEV volumes stood at 22,118 units in September 2025, which is a 55.9% growth from 2024 to represent 9.1% of all new registrations.
